Review of Treasury Macroeconomic and Revenue Forecasting

The Review has:

• assessed the quality of Treasury’s macroeconomic and revenue forecasts by examining the appropriateness of forecasting methodologies and, data permitting, comparing forecast accuracy with other forecasters, both in Australia and overseas, over periods between 1990‑91 and 2011‑12; and
• prepared two case studies, which relate to the most recent challenges confronting forecasters, namely Mining Boom Mark I (2003‑04 to 2007‑08) and the GFC and Mining Boom Mark II (2008‑09 to 2011‑12).

The report was prepared by the Secretariat established within the Treasury for that purpose. The Secretariat has authored the report and is responsible for the data, analysis and commentary in the report. The Advisory Panel has played an oversight role, including providing comments and suggestions to the Secretariat on the scope and content of the report. In addition, the Advisory Panel has prepared the Executive Summary which includes a number of recommendations and suggestions for further improving the Treasury’s forecasting processes going forward.